Finally! Olympus forecast says they will return to profit thanks to increased camera sales!

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Yesterday I told you how surprised I was to see that the E-M1 seems to sell way better than the A7-A7r cameras according to Amazon mirrorless ranking (Click here). Well for once Amazon was apparently telling us the truth!

Today Bloomberg reports that” Olympus forecast a return to profit for its camera unit next fiscal year as sales of mirrorless models increase.“. Olympus CEO confirmed that camera sales will rise up to 1 million units til April (with 5% market share). And this means that after many years Olympus will make the first profit in the camera business!

Olympus CEO also said that the sales increase happens thanks to their high end mirrorless cameras. And it’s an easy guess that he meant the E-M5 and E-M1 cameras :)

Reminder: Gariz realized their sexy half leather cases for the new Olympus E-M1 You can have it on eBay in Black (Click here) or Brown (Click here).

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  • http://www.weddingvouchercodes.com YouDidntDidYou

    Pretty sure Olympus Imaging will be making a profit for this years final quarter too..

  • Jankoff

    “Forecast a return to profit for its camera” should read “forecast on the possible extent of human folly” :-) And any serious observer of the process cannot fail to note that right now A7 does not sell well simply because of the scanty availability of lenses. Situation will soon reverse – if human folly is not all-pervasive, of course :-)

    • Patrick

      soon… very soon.. haha….
      So now we have a new official troller. The guy waits every new post (he doesn’t miss a single one) to come here and vomit his narrowed mind ideas. His cam-system-blog has zero to none activity so he feels good coming here, just to troll. What a way of life…. poor kid.

      • Jankoff

        Oly Fanboy Rule No 1: “Whoever does not hold Oly in sky-high regard, irrespective of all possible Oly folly, he shall be called troller and shall burn in Hell. For ever. Amen.”

        • MarcoSartoriPhoto

          We’re going to give you the love you need and seek, but you have to behave. :)

        • Patrick

          My only Olympus camera is an OM-1n film camera…. poor kid…

        • Richard

          Dear Jackoff
          The A7 sales are hampered by it being FF and the lens selection being minute, and the lenses themselves being huge.
          The oly 12-40mm is still impossible to get hold of, but it is not stopping sales of the EM1
          I would love an A7 but only as an addition to the EM1, for most peoples needs the A7 simply will not cut it for at least another couple of years and iterations, but it will still have vast FF lenses – NOT WHAT MOST PEOPLE WANT! (otherwise they would be buiying it!)

          • Jankoff

            Vast lenses? So what? I, having never been an athlete, habitually carry two E-520s with 12-60 and 70-300 on them, plus E-PM1 with Leica 25mm and (very often) a E-600 with Sigma 150mm 2.8 (large&heavy). And I do not complain – because this gives me large possibilities.

            • Richard

              you must have big biceps now.. But you are talking about the heaviest 43s gear which is still a lot lighter than the FF equivalent, where the FF equivalent even exists. You are not a typical camera user..
              The numbers speak for themselves, the EM1 is doing amazing because it is what a lot of people want – just look at all of the camera of the year awards it is getting too. Now look at who is buying the A7. it is selling to a much smaller niche audience who wants what it can give. It will not touch EM1 sales.
              For me the ideal set up is EM1 with lots of lenses for all the different capabilities, + and A7 and a prime or two for where intend to create 1m+ posters…..

    • http://www.43rumors.com/members/dummy00001/ Dummy00001

      “And any serious observer of the process cannot fail to note that right now A7 does not sell well simply because of the scanty availability of lenses. Situation will soon reverse [..]”

      Those eying NEX system have been fed this “will soon reverse” for at least 2 years now. Sony did very little to change the situation. Yes, there are more NEX lenses now. But. But either you get the average/below average Sony lens or you get the Zeiss one which nobody can afford.

      Now compare NEX lens catalog with the younger Fuji X. Fuji has *less* lenses but all are easily “recommended”. Fuji has already nearly complete lens system, while NEX (if you remove the luxury/subpar lenses) still has gaps.

  • ronin

    Seems the manufacturers predict the same thing, year after year: How much better their camera sales will be next year

    And then when next year hits, the numbers are revised down, then revised down.

    Hope they do good. What’s their track record for meeting predictions?

    • http://www.youdidntdiyou.com YouDidntDidYou stock images

      I’m sure this accurate, Olympus have improved their inventory in quality and rate of turn, marketing is providing RoI,pricing is more stable, costs have been reduced and sales are up, what more are they suppose to do?

    • dav

      They are never accurate.

      It’s part of the Japanese culture, you have to “think positive” and ignore the negative, even when there are pretty clear signals pointing negative. They always forecast positive and their forecast are always off by a large margine. Then, after the fact, instead of telling “we were wrong because…” they blame external factors (the flood in Thailand, the bad economy, the fact that the US people are fat and large and don’t like small, etc)

      This time around they might be right, but I don’t trust them. Take a look at a more western-like, fact-base re-analysis of their claims and commentary on http://www.bythom.com/ (there are many financial articles as well as technical ones — not yet on this topic but I’m sure Thom will comment it soon)

      • http://www.youdidntdiyou.com YouDidntDidYou stock images

        “more western-like, fact-base re-analysis” for a chuckle!

        • Froggy

          From the same ones who were sayin’ that subprimes were safe 😉

          Prevision (or prediction?) are to be taken for what they are… uknown future based on known past events… Only Asimov succeeded in that way 😉

      • zesty

        If all US people like large things then how do you explain the invasion of the tiny iphone or the ipad mini that just crushed the camera industry.Why isn’t apple making a Fat-Phone that comes with french fries? These statements are just as asinine as racist stereotypes.

        • yaa

          Maybe you haven’t noticed, but iphones, like all smartphones, are a fair bit bigger then the ultra-small and ultra-light ‘not so smart’ phones that were popular before them.

          Ever walked into a Subway? What is the first thing you notice? Bread being advertised by size.
          Ever ordered something in a Mac? Sir, do you want to supersize that?

          Matter of fact is, the whole concept of supersized meals is an American invention, and totally telling for a number of tendencies in American culture, regardless of how much you may hate that being pointed out.

          And there is nothing racist about that, as it has absolutely nothing to do with the ‘race’ or ethnic background of people, and everything with the culture they grow up in being obsessed with size.
          WE have the biggest

    • ronin

      To answer my own question- a year ago Oly imaging announced very nice forecasts, only to slash them a few months later.

      Let’s hope they can avoid this next time, but their track record speaks for itself.

  • Mr Yee

    Olympus has actually been profitable if you deduct the one time payments that have been necessary to settle the accounting scandal law suits, something that can’t be said for certain other manufacturers, particularly Nikon.

    With the accounting scandal behind them and the momentum they’ve got going, Olympus has a very bright future. Trolls will troll and try and convince people otherwise, but anyone with eyes to see knows that Olympus is on the rebound.

    • http://www.youdidntdiyou.com YouDidntDidYou stock images

      @Mr Yee
      true… who could of predicted eh? 😉

      • http://www.flickr.com/photos/photography-by-thomas/sets TheEye

        *grunt*

        • http://www.youdidntdiyou.com YouDidntDidYou stock images

          @TheEye
          *zup,zup!*

    • Rob

      Why not actually read the companies annual accounts before dreaming up fictional data on the internet?

      In 2008/9, Olympus’s imaging division had US$3.2bn of sales, in the year to March 14, sales will be barely US$900m. Every year since 2008/9, Olympus’s imaging division has reported an loss at the operating level. (Admittedly in most years the overall company has made a profit even accounting for the internal fraud.) Nikon’s sales have gone from US$5.3bn to US$7.5bn and its imaging division has reported a profit every single year.

  • quangzizi

    In this industry when fewer and fewer people buy new cameras and accessorizes in the long run, only innovations will be profitable in the long run. Educated buyers will buy things that really stand at the frontier of technology. Many said about how Canon and Nikon own the market now, yet few evaluate how they will do in the future. Look at Sony, Oly and Pana which are mostly irrelevant names 4 – 5 years ago yet now creating new trends for the market. It’s interesting to see what the future holds. One thing is true though: nothing lasts forever.

    • ronin

      “only innovations will be profitable in the long run”

      What is the basis for this claim? The number one and two players are noted for being the least innovative, yet are profitable. By contrast the most innovative are the least profitable; indeed, a case can be made that they innovate chiefly because they are losing money; without that motivation why not just take run rate revenue off a loyal base, let the innovators spend themselves out of business, and just kick back and relax?

      In that scenario (today’s real life one), only market share will be profitable. And the micro 4/3 share of the interchangeable lens market is, what, 5% at best?

      An interesting observation: only in micro 4/3 blogs do I see fans constantly announcing how they will take over the world, displace DSLRs, are so innovative, are so superior to all other formats larger and smaller. I mean, why the compulsion to constantly announce this massive victory? I don’t see any such declaration in forums dedicated to DSLRs.

      • Rinaldo

        Number one and two players don’t innovate but only think in profit (that’s why at some point they will sink). That’s why most here don’t like them anymore… which is very understandable…

      • quangzizi

        Haha look like someone can’t take it anymore.

        I never claim that M43 will be the thing nor do I ever claim that Canon or Nikon will stop ruling. I also never claim that Canikon don’t innovate, only from your post it seems so. I also never proclaim any victory or winning over anything cause frankly I don’t need it. I simply state the simple fact: innovate or get replaced. This has been true in so many industries through so many eras that it hardly a new thing. Names like Nokia, Polaroids, Blockbuster.com,… are not age ago. They were once the only thing that’s relevant but we know what happened. Things just change.

        Why innovation? As people get more educated, they use stuffs with better technologies because they can. Why the hell not? If there is a faster car for the same price why bother with 2005 version? Even the popular era of cameras are over, everything now is done on Iphone and Samsung. Do they feel shameful to not use a CaNikon to take pics? Not even once.

      • yaa

        Talking about the big 2, innovation and getting their ass handed to them… maybe you should take a look at Nikon precision, their lithography business and how ASML basically reduced them to irrelevance in the market by innovating while Nikon was just doing business as usual.

        Yes, thats the same Nikon that sells cameras.

  • Anonymoose

    4/3 was profitable, too.

    • hollandre

      All they have to do is use the current 16MP sensor in a 4/3 E-7 and that segment will also be profitable again. It is so very simple.

      • Jankoff

        A E-7 & E-550 duo would even be much better. I’ve been repeating this for years, along with many others around the world.

        • OMega

          Why not ask for the whole hog,
          E-7
          E-40
          E-3**
          E-4**
          E-5**
          E-6**
          And why not ask Cosina to produce an E-1*** model.

        • rpm40

          E-M1 has killed off new 4/3 bodies for good, and that’s a plus for Olympus. Why would they want to hang on to 4/3 and compete in the DSLR space where they were getting trounced, when they can focus on m4/3 where they are making progress because advantages of a smaller system are actually realized? The system was ok (I had several), but it never took enough advantage of its defining features.

          4/3 had great lenses, but there just isn’t enough reason to justify the system still existing if you can get those lenses to work on m4/3 bodies. What advantages would 4/3 SLRs have over competitors? Want weatherproof? Get pentax. Want good sports shooting? Get Canon. Want a good mirrorless system? …oh wait, m4/3 is actually in the game. Interesting…

          Let 4/3 rest in peace.

        • yaa

          “I’ve been repeating this for years, along with many others around the world.”

          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum

          As a long term 4/3 user with investment in hg and shg glass, I totally disagree with you, the hybrid solution is actually the best they could provide I think because it gives 4/3 users a future upgrade path, instead of something to keep being stuck in the past.

          But eh.. hows your Pentax K30 coming along?

  • HappyVan

    Wow! Congrats to Oly. Well done!

    It’s such an amazing turnabout from early 2013.

    http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/june-2013/more-on-olympus-and-breakev.html

    It’s amazing. Looks like they will increase M43 sales by 2/3!!!!

    Wait a minute. I don’t see that in the SALES figures. In Japan, E-M1 is #70. Nikon D610 is #62, Top Oly ILC is PM2.

    http://www.dslrphoto.com/dslr/space.php?do=jranking&view=all

    ????

  • Bob B.

    Perhaps now that Olympus is showing a profit they could possibly beef-up the plastic studs that the lens flange mounts to on their $999 12-40mm PRO lens?! :-)

    • Jack

      +1 and also maybe throw in lens hoods for most of their lenses?

      • Bob B.

        I am talking 50 cents worth of plastic here..and maybe of a better quality! I was thinking of buying that lens…but after reading all of the reports…no way. That is a shame…as it specs out nice…but for $1000…it should have more support in there…would love to here Roger Ciala’s at LensRentals take on the construction quality. His insight would be valuable.

    • ronin

      “now that Olympus is showing a profit…”

      So actually reporting income is no longer important. Just predicting one ipso facto makes one profitable.

  • Tim

    Now the pressure is on to get the next batch right.
    -Un-clutter the menus
    -AF/MF switch
    -Flash built in
    -25p/50p video with 5 axis IBIS
    -Mic and Headphone sockets
    -Ability to operate the camera with one hand like the Panasonic GH2/3

    • http://www.43rumors.com/members/dummy00001/ Dummy00001

      > -AF/MF switch

      Why? What for is the switch? Why S-AF+MF mode is not sufficient?

      • Tim

        Dear Dummy00001,
        AF/MF is used to switch between auto focus and manual focus. Panasonic camera users know that they don’t have to search through menus to change something so simple. Olympus have addressed this oversight by introducing a couple of lenses with a sliding focus ring to swap between AF/MF. Video shooters usually use this function the most. AF is used to establish initial focus point and then once recording video – a quick switch to MF for manually controlling focus. Hopefully this answers your question.

        • yaa

          tim, on the E-P5 and E-M1, you can use that nice switch it has on the rear to switch between 2 AF modes, one of which can be ‘mf’.

          Additionally, you can assign switching to mf mode to a button.

          So it seems that besides the solution with some lenses that you mention (that actually exists for a totally different reason but also happens to address your issue), there are a few other solutions available, including the one you ask for (through, its not a ‘hard’ switch, you can actually customize what it does).

          Last but not least, besides being able to ‘switch’, there is the possibility of turning the camera to MF mode, and have a dedicated button do AF for acquiring initial focus.

          In other words, what you describe has been addressed in at least 4 different ways, including one that is in fact the kind of solution that you are asking for.

  • MrALLCAPS

    That’s nice to hear for the shareholders and fanboys, BUT saying they’ll make a profit and actually doing so, are two totally different things.

    I look at it like this, the camera division was at a loss for a while now, with only 14 percent for the company? With the E-M5 selling?

    Wow.

    so they’re still selling the E-M5 and the E-M1, but nobody is checking for the E-P5. So it will be very interesting to see them pull this off.

    I doubt they will.

  • http://www.mirrorlessworld.com atlasman

    Now all Olympus has to do in beef up the video capabilities and it can grow in this growing market!

    • Eosphoros

      No, it doesn’t.

      Very few people ever use it and Panasonic, Canon and BlackMagic will always be two steps ahead anyway, so why burn R&D money if they are going to be behind anyway ?
      It’s money and time better spent improving other things.

      • http://www.youdidntdiyou.com YouDidntDidYou stock images

        @Eosphoros
        The video market itself is segmented, Olympus don’t have to compete head on with Sony,Panasonic, Canon and BlackMagic…

      • Rinaldo

        yes, of course it does!!! I ended up selling my oly cameras for a gx7 because of absence of good video. If the em5 (so the epl5) had 24p and a better codec I wouldn’t start the switch 15 months ago… I still miss it a lot though, the 5-axis is unbeatable for video… only olympus didn’t realize that. I’m a pro videographer and I want my personal camera to handle good video… no problem with that, right?

        • Tim

          Totally agree….. and if Olympus want to really increase sales – then they should realise that their biggest market is in Europe and Asia where people need 25p/50p video.
          Nobody has made an IBIS body for video in PAL countries. The GX7 and the EM-5 both missed.

      • Tim

        Yes it should. Why should Olympus beef up it’s video capabilities? Because many of us actually use the video function on these cameras. Ever since the GH2 was hacked serious video shooters realised that they could achieve fantastic results with m4/3 camera all that’s been missing is Olympus IBIS and Panasonic video image quality in one camera. The GX7 came close but missed the boat. Now it’s Olympus’s chance to steal the show and give us IBIS and video for all regions – including it’s biggest market – Europe and Asia. There is a market that hasn’t been tapped yet. That’s why.

      • yaa

        Adding basics like support for 24 and 25p at the very least isn’t a huge investment in R&D, makes the cameras a lot more attractive to people outside the USA because they can actually use local standards for video and avoid stupid flicker problems in artificial light, and this ensures that lack of support for local video standards can no longer be used as an argument by ‘sales people’ to send people in another direction.

        Yes, filling those points on the bullet list is important, regardless of if you or me would ever use it.

        Matter of fact is that lots of especially reporters and photo-journalists in Europe will avoid an Olympus camera as their personal camera exactly because it cannot do 25p video, while those are exactly the kind of people for which cameras like an E-M5 and E-M1 are very attractive otherwise.

  • Rob

    Hmmm…. Olympus, even by its own forecast, is heading for their 5th consecutive year of losses at the imaging division.

    They say they will make a profit in their next financial year. But for the last 4 years, they have also said that the imaging division will return to profit in the next financial year and the next financial year it has generated losses.

    And how seriously should we take their forecast of 1m mirrorless ILC sales next year. In the first half of this year they sold 250,000 mirrorless units, at an annualised rate of 500,000. So are they really going to double their mirrorless sales next year?

  • Jeroen

    If the Olympus camera devision could make a profit next year it would be very good news. Let’s hope it will because I want to enjoy Olympus camera product for a long, long time.

  • George McGovern

    Panasonic should BUY Olympus. Or, specifically, the part of Olympus that Sony wasn’t interested in. In the future the size of competitors (to Canikon) is going to be more important than their number. So what if m4/3 only has one manufacturer? Looks like that’s going to be the case with every other mirrorless mount.

    • yaa

      For now, the important thing for Canikon is how Canon is going to ensure their fallback business can keep them running during the rather big squeeze of the camera market that is going on, and how Nikon is going to get some kind of business they can fall back on, since they have none at all.

  • rpm40

    They’ve been doing a pretty nice job across the board of late- the E-M5, E-M1, 12-40, Stylus 1, XZ-2… top to bottom, they’re putting out good products.

    I hope it ends up paying off for them, as they’ve been consistently pushing product innovation- I want to see it pay off for them.

  • AG

    The biggest difference between E-M1 and A7 are that Sony will dump A7 soon for newer technology. One is photography company and one is technology company.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/amalric/ amalric

    Stylus is candidate to Worst Camera of the Year at Photorumors, and I agree… They must always shite somewhere :)

    So Ollie dear, now that you are in funds, what about giving some goodies in firmware? Look at Big Brother Fuji, how fairer…

    • yaa

      There is nothing fair about putting a camera on the market with unfinished and simply broken firmware, and then releasing updates that at least make the firmware more complete and less broken.

  • Stevie G

    Good news!!! So there might be an OM-D EM-1 Mark II????

    • http://www.43rumors.com/members/cornflake/ TheTree

      Winter 2015? There is no reason to release it sooner and without completely new sensor. The lifecycle of OMDs is close to 2 years > a pressure to come out with well done cameras full of new technologies.

  • E.J. Peiker

    Here is a different take on the Bloomberg article:
    http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/visicalc-dreaming.html

    • Vlad

      Good one.

      • http://deleted MrALLCAPS

        This.

        Olympus are a bunch of liars. Sure they “think” they’ll sell that much, but we all know they won’t. They only have a couple of styles that are actually selling. I look at it like Nintendo.
        Nintendo sold tons of Wii’s. They introduce the WiiU, which starts of quick, only to sputter soon afterwards. They then predict they’ll sell around 9 million units in a certain timespan. They then reduce that number to 7-6 million, by the end of the year. Currently, they just made it to four million.
        So, that’s nintendo hoping. I consider them honest compared to Olympus. So when Olympus says they “Think”, they’re really lying to the Olympus faithful.

  • http://www.youdidntdiyou.com YouDidntDidYou stock images

    @E.J. Peiker and @Thom Hogan
    Unbelievably flawed article once from T. Hogan!

    “Each additional mirrorless camera sold therefore is accounting for 28,529 yen profit (US$273). And that would be assuming that compact cameras don’t actually cause any loss for Olympus during that period. Note also that according to CIPA the average selling price for mirrorless cameras tends to be in the US$300-400 range.” CIPA’s average selling price is for ALL mirrorless not Olympus mirrorless so stupid comparision.

    “after 2.7 billion yen in loss so far this year, so a minimum of a 9.7 yen turnaround caused by 340k cameras” did they say just cameras? in GBP -2.7bn to +9.7bn yen is converting a small loss to a modest profit a mere difference of £70 million in GBP…sounds less dramatic??? Same in $ its $120 million still less dramatic turnaround?

    “1m mirrorless camera sales. First, note the “as early as in the year starting April” qualifier. Good thing that’s there, because assuming Olympus sells their predicted 660k units this year” I’m betting that Olympus have been conservative with the 660K so the market will be pleasantly surprised when the final figures is released (prob near 770-800k). So doing near 1 million units shouldn’t be too hard for 2014/15 seeing as Pentax, Samsung, Canon and Nikon are not making headway in the mirrorless market.

    “5% market share. 1m units and a 5% market share means only 20m units will be sold. Again, what market this refers to isn’t specifically called out by Bloomberg. If it were mirrorless only, that would mean that the mirrorless market would be seeing nearly 200% growth and Olympus only 52% ;~)” Erm no, Hogan is not taking into the steep decline in the point and shoot segment and the decline in the DSLR segment and the likely decline of canikon’s and Pentax/Ricoh’s mirrorless share.
    I could go on………….

    • E.J. Peiker

      Hey I was just making the readership aware of the alternate viewpoint expressed by Thom, I am not taking a position either way on it. 😉
      I haven’t analyzed the data enough to do that.

    • TR

      @YouDidntDidYou You call Thom’s article “incredibly flawed”, which is rather strong language. So I am sure you don’t mind I question the reasoning based on which you made that statement?

      First of all you are misquoting Thom. The sentence “Note also that according to CIPA the average selling price for mirrorless cameras tends to be in the US$300-400 range.” does not appear in his article. Where do you get it from?

      Second point: You ask: “did they say just cameras?” – Read the Bloomberg article instead of asking rhetorical questions: “Annual sales of mirrorless models will rise to 1 million units […] Achieving that level of sales will bring about 7 billion yen ($68 million) in operating profit, he said.”

      Third point: “I’m betting that Olympus have been conservative with the 660K so the market will be pleasantly surprised when the final figures is released (prob near 770-800k).” – You base these figures on what? Are you really saying Thom’s article is incredibly flawed because you believe Olympus will sell more than they themselves think they will sell?

      Your fourth point doesn’t actually contradict Thom at all; he just outlines two ways that the Olympus statement can be interpreted.

      “I could go on………….” -> yes please, as so far I can see not a single argument that would justify calling the article flawed…

      • dav

        +1

        • http://www.youdidntdiyou.com YouDidntDidYou stock images

          @TR and @dav
          his article was edited/altered this morning (my time), everything in quotes was cut and pasted from his original article.

          • TR

            Okay, so assuming that is correct that partly addresses the first point. How about the other points?

          • sunlighter

            You are a confirmed Olympus loony and hater of Thom Hogan ,presumably because every article he publishes [ using actual data] makes a mockery of your silly claims. I have read many post from you that contain claims so ridiculous that I assumed you were attempting irony ,we Americans just do not get irony lol. Until I realized that you actually believe what you post.

            Highlights or more accurate low lights of your posting history includes, claims that Olympus did not partake in a huge financial fraud, and even if they did it was all Woodford’s fault for pointing this out,you have posted blurred oof shots then argued that they were “good”, and so.Though the star turns are your Flickr schools of economics claims which you take as a rock solid reflection of the cameras sales market, seriously lol.

            The mirrorless share of Flickr posts is miniscule even for cameras released in the same year, the highest Olympus is the E-PL1 with 6 million items the D7000 released 6 months later has 52 million. Your 28% is another lie

            • http://www.youdidntdiyou.com YouDidntDidYou stock images

              @sunlighter or whatever you call yourself these days

              Nope, I just point out his inaccuracies and misinterpretations…

              btw I shoot mostly Panasonic strangely sansmirror barely gives a mention to Panny (one of the largest mirrorless players)
              Nope did not say Olympus didn’t partake in the fraud or that it was Woodford’s fault

              Post a link to your Flickr account, if you are feeling brave, while you are at it trying using the simple Flickr commenting system to make your critique of individual photos known.

              Nope said Flickr was a rock solid reflection of the cameras sales market just that you could get a good insight of camera users real world behaviour and trends as it represents such a large World cross demographic.

              Ignore Flick stats and trends at your DSLR peril.

              “Your 28% is another lie” what are you on about?

              • TR

                @YouDidntDidYou I cannot comment on your argument with sunlighter, but it seems to me you haven’t answered any of the points I raised, apart from addressing #1 (which I am happy to accept for the moment as he may very well have tweaked the article). In particular I’d like to see the solid data you have based on which you criticise Thom’s use of the Olympus sales data as wrong, claiming that they will sell more units than they themselves say they will. I’d also like to see at least two or three more “incredibly flawed” arguments in Thom’s article, seeing as you state “I could go on”.

              • TR

                @YouDidntDidYou First of all in the spirit of precise quoting: You did of course say “unbelievably flawed”, not in credibly flawed – my bad. However, it I’d still think it that’s a rather strong statement that needs backing up. Will I ever get an answer or are you just the type of person who throws around wild statements?

  • I have a small

    The question is….

    Will Olympus be a one hit wonder with the E-M1???

    • E.J. Peiker

      One could argue that both the E-M5 and E-M1 were hits 😉

    • Richard

      yeah sorry the definition of a one hit wonder is to come out of nowhere have one hit, and then disappear again…
      olympus had hits with lots of film cameras, some of the pens, the em5 and now the em1…. thats a lot of hits! When it comes to m43 Oly has clearly been getting better and better with every turn (with the exception of video specs) they are listening to their users and continuing to improve, and the bet that they made on sensor size which was way way way to early with 43, now seems to be working with m43. I think Oly will continue to grow, and with Sony and pana, will continue to break up the Canikon near monopoly of the “pro-sumer” market….

  • robin

    Everything made in china of cause they make a profit… haha
    they make awesome cameras too

  • Dan Nolan

    I wonder how e-p5 contributes

  • http://vanweddings.com VanWeddings

    this is very nice to see. Olympus needs to stay in business because they are putting out some seriously great gear. now if they’d only put a decent codec and 24fps into their cameras…

  • Olympius

    Anyone who thinks Olympus will return to profitability in the next year, let along the next five years, must be living in Colorado and enjoying their liberal pro-marijuana policies. It’s mathematically and fiscally impossible for Olympus to return to profitability in the next year, let alone two years, or even longer.

    I would love to see a profitable Olympus, but it ain’t going to happen.

    As to why it can’t happen, read Thom Hogan’s analysis here:

    http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/visicalc-dreaming.html

    In summation, Thom says:

    “….Every time I write critically about these soft news stories or optimistic projections I get slammed by folk who just want to believe that everything is rosy. The cameras Olympus makes—especially the OM-D models—are great. But I won’t believe that Olympus’ camera division is profitable and healthy until the numbers show that they actually are making money. The projections from them have been wrong far too often recently to tacitly believe them, not to mention that this is a company that lied about its financial situation for over a decade. The extreme growth that Olympus is now projecting for their m4/3 cameras flies in the face of the current market situation, in my opinion. I hope they achieve it. But it sure looks like someone’s spreadsheet has some optimistic numbers in it over in Tokyo….”

    Amen.

    – Olympius

    • dav

      As a liberal person, living in Colorado (where the pot will be legal *next* year, it’s not now) and not having ever used marijuana nor intending to, I feel offended by your remark. Moreover, I’m told the thing is not hallucinogen like some recreational mushrooms legal in some other countries.

      Despite that, I agree with Thom, but not with you. As Thom says, it’s not totally mathematically impossible (it would require for Olympus a “52% growth while all the other makers together showed 18% improvement”), but certainly very unlikely.

      Especially because in the whole world the only big market out of the recession/depression is the USA (with 4.1% grow in the third quarter http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/12/20/255723954/economy-looks-better-at-least-in-rearview-mirror ) and Olympus marketing is pretty much ignoring the USA….

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