Guest post by Cecil about the OM Digital Solutions Corporation

Our reader Cecil wrote down his thoughts on the future of the new OM Digital Solutions Corporation:

As you know, the future of OM Digital Solutions Corporation and the continuation of the camera lines we use is not yet clear. Sony has captured the primary position for video with the A7s III and Panasonic has apparently ceded the field of M43 for all practical purposes. All the major competitors remaining in the interchangeable lens camera business now have mirrorless offerings featuring technical improvements in sensor and new auto-focus technology.

Against this background, JIP is currently holding fire sales of existing Olympus camera inventory. They are clearly trying to turn surplus inventory into cash and eliminate some “white elephants” Olympus produced. These are reasonable actions for executives facing a hostile new market. JIP is also aware that they have to stop any run for the exits by existing Olympus users and especially influencers if they are to survive.

The body size advantages m43 had have evaporated as other firms have moved to mirrorless designs. However, the lens size advantages of the smaller sensor still exist. For a little while, JIP still has an advantage with long glass users. The original m43 ‘telecentric’ design means that m43 can deliver reach for less weight and cost. The 20MP sensor and its poor high ISO performance is a problem, but for some users this is not yet critical as the competition is lagging in alternative mirrorless products.

The risk to m43 has never been full frame (FF) cameras. It was always APS-C. The argument over mirrorless design vs DSLR is over, and mirrorless won. The argument of lens size, weight and cost is still going on. Fuji was the first major player to realize they could deliver enough resolution and high ISO performance with advance APS-C chips to carve out a segment with both professionals and consumers. Like Olympus, Fuji has a long history of excellent optical design. They leveraged this to produce the X series of cameras and lenses with APS-C BSI sensors. What Fuji has not yet done is produce a range of faster, long glass. This year they stated they will fix that in 2021. This will be a huge threat to JIPs target market.

Now Canon has finally decided to come to this party as well. When they finally released pro mirrorless bodies, Canon radically improved their sensor performance and resolution, added world class IBIS and challenged Sony for the state-of-the-art auto-focus title. They have admitted they are now going to offer all of this in a pro APS-C replacement for the venerable 7d mark ii. The 7d mark ii is one of the most accomplished success stories for wildlife photographers and anyone needed a portable camera with long reach. Canon will bring all its technical advances to a new APS-C pro body in 2021. This is a mortal threat to JIP as Canon already has the world standard in long glass for sports and wildlife photography.

And then we have Nikon. The main question is actually “do we have Nikon?”. It is not yet clear if Nikon is going to stay in the camera business. If they do, then JIP faces a triple threat. The D500 is the DSLR that comes closest to being the direct alternative to any Olympus pro camera. It has a comparable sensor (with about the same weaknesses), similar frame rates and outstanding autofocus that still beats all Olympus cameras in BIF tests by a little bit. However, there is not an announced plan for a mirrorless version of the D500 yet. If Nikon stays in business, they will have to release one when Canon drops the mirrorless 7D mark ii replacement or loose a huge number of sales they can ill afford. Like Canon, they already have excellent glass that is already the next to most popular for sports and wildlife shooters. Nikon is still struggling with catching Sony and Canon in auto-focus, but this is a “do or die” for them, and they have committed to being on par with Canon and Sony just to survive. They also already moved to BSI sensors and improved resolution when they went mirrorless, so they will have to stick with that for any APS-C offering to compete with Canons products.

This leaves Sony. Sony appears ambivalent over APS-C for professionals. I don’t expect that to change as the a7r IV already offers pros a crop mode many use for extra reach in wildlife shoots. At 60MP the Sony BSI sensor provides substantially more pixels than Olympus for the same sized target in any mode. Its noise performance is much better and that of Olympus cameras and its auto-focus in the new standard for people, animals and action. Sony has nothing left to prove, and they are not done innovating. Their target is Canon now, and of course the final crushing of Nikon. However, they are happy to consume other firms markets as a side benefit.  I don’t expect them to split off APS-C pro as an offering in 2021.

So what of JIP and the cameras we use?

JIP can try to keep selling what it got “as is” from Olympus to get as much money out of it as it can before the asset reaches no substantial value. This is the “new wine in old bottles” approach and has some business sense to it. If you just keep repackaging existing Olympus tech at lower price points you can capture a lot of people for whom the EM-1 mark iii is better than what they have.

However, Canon and Fuji want that market too, and even Sony wants the consumer APS-C market. They all have new offerings with improved tech at lower prices. I don’t think JIP could survive a price war with either Fuji or Sony over consumer level sales.

As for the professional market it is time to either deliver new product or go home. JIP has 6-9 months to get a new version of the EM-1 ready, or they will be caught by a flurry of releases from Fuji (long glass and new APS-C cameras) and Canon (an APS-C camera with existing long glass for mirrorless). Sony will continue to just come out with a new a7r and drop the price of the a7r mark IV with crop mode. Nikon will be late, but if they still play at all, they can at least announce a pro APS-C in 2021.

JIP has to have some sort of story to tell about how the sensor and autofocus in the next EM-1 generation is going to compete. If they don’t, then it is back to the “sell it all off as best we can” approach. There is no alternative when your sensor is over 4 years old.

The resolution is not the biggest issue. Unless a miracle of sensor design happens, no m43 sensor with good ISO performance will offer very high MP counts. But most professionals can work well with between 20MP and 30MP. 20 is a little low, but 24MP -32MP is enough if the ISO performance is at least 1 stop better. 1.5 stops or 2 stops would be safer, but at this point I just hope JIP stays in the game at all.
The next few months will show us if there is a longer-term future for Olympus gear. I hope there is, but if not, it will take a couple years to wind it down. It also might remain a vestigial firm like Pentax or Hasselblad. There is always the possibility that a new firm might enter the m43 area. A Samsung or similar tech-oriented group could shake this up again. If not, then the day will go to APS-C. This is the real story, as the sales for FF have never actually been there when compared against APS-C. The giants of the field just could not admit that due to having ego’s that go with their image as “leaders”. The money has always been in the higher volume crop sensors, but the glory never has followed. In the end the money wins. I only hope JIP carves out some of that money for m43 and OM Digital Solutions products.