I’m waiting for more news about the upcoming Olympus E-450.I still don’t know when exactly the digital camera will be announced. Meanwhile I have got one more information. I asked one source if after the E-450 we will see another DSLR or if it will finally be the turn of a micro four thirds camera. He told me the next camera after the Olympus E-450 will definitely be a micro four thirds camera!!!
by thom is one of the big names in digital photography. His website is highly visited and his predictions often right.
His predictions for Olympus are quite bad.
“Pentax and Olympus seem particularly vulnerable to me as long term DSLR players at this point (I consider Fujifilm already gone).”
His vision about Olympus and Panasonic partnerships:
“Panasonic‘s awkward 4/3 alliance with Olympus produces as much a competitor as it does an ally, and I’m pretty sure Panasonic doesn’t really like splitting whatever share 4/3 grabs with another player. With Panasonic buying Sanyo, this increases the pressure on Olympus, as now Panasonic will own the contract manufacturer Olympus has been using.”
He has positive feeling about Panasonic strategy:
“Sony and Panasonic are certainly doing well enough in compacts to survive there, the question is whether their costs at trying to expand into DSLRs are fully justified. In 2009, I think they’ll survive the cut.”
And his final prediction:
Olympus. Okay, some of my “other company” predictions have not been terribly specific. Here’s a specific one: Olympus will sell more of their first micro 4/3 compact (the one whose prototype showed up at Photokina) than they do DSLRs. And not by a small margin. Olympus will be very happy with that, perhaps even smug. But that’s the wrong reaction. If I’m right about how popular their micro 4/3 compact will be, this is actually a serious indictment of their DSLR strategy. Regular 4/3 is not particularly sustainable in the face of micro 4/3 being successful. At the high end, Olympus’ E3 will be staring down four or more 20mp+ DSLRs. In the middle, the E-5xx and baby E3 (E30) have Canon, Nikon, and Sony to contend with and aren’t making inroads. At the bottom, the E-4xx is totally canibalized by the G1 and micro 4/3. And worse still, the existing 4/3 lens lineup is simply too big and not fully ready for micro 4/3. It appears that Olympus will simply reiterate the 4/3 lenses with the new electronics needed by micro 4/3. That’s a band-aid at best. Olympus’ 4/3 bet now hinges on sensor developments. They need compact sensor sized photosites with APS or better qualities for 4/3 to live (note I didn’t say micro 4/3). The problem with that is that, if such a breakthrough did happen, it won’t be limited to 4/3. Compacts, APS, and FX will all see the same benefits, and thus 4/3 keeps falling short at the high end. This is a tough year for Olympus. Indeed, their problem is that they’re getting pulled into the gravity of the bigger planet, Panasonic. With Panasonic buying Sanyo, who assembles many of the Olympus products, there’s great risk to them becoming another P-brand
My considerations in short:
I’ll NOT agree completely! What do you think?
The owner of the website fourthirdsphoto.com had the chance to make an interview to Mr. Watanabe. You can read all of it here:
The most important statements are:
1) We are planning a successor to the Olympus E-420 and it will be different. (that was all he had to say about that one.)
2) Yes (we are planning to introduce prime lens), but it is difficult to prioritize which ones to make first.
3) No release of either a camera or lens Âµ4/3 (Micro four thirds) road map.
P.s.: I’m waiting for news about the Olympus E-450 release date. Do YOU know something? ;)
Sorry if we have the courage to post something about our biggest enemy. But the Canon 500d rumors are quite interesting and will influence sell volumes and prices of the new Panasonic GH1.
Canon has sent invitations for a new product which will be presented on March 25th.
So first we show you the features of the new camera compared to the Panasonic GH1!
|Pansonic GH1||Canon 500d|
|3.0″ TFT LCD monitor 460,000 dots||3.0″ VGA screen 920,000 dots (NO swifel)|
|23-Area-Focusing/1 Area Focusing (inc. Face Detection)||9 Point AF (inc. Face Detection for AF)|
|video mode (variable framerate)||video mode (variable framerate)|
That’s just a simple first comparison. I don’t believe Canon will bring big surprises like for example a 3.0 OLED screen or 1080 60/50p mode.
What’s more interesting for us is the impact that the Canon 500d could have on the price of the Panasonic GH1. Actually the official price is 1.500 Dollars for a GH1 with kit lens. I believe Canon can keep the price quite low, we say 600$ for body only. From a price point of view this is a real challenger for the Panasonic GH1 !!!
We had some discussions with our trusted rumor sources. One of our most important questions were about sensor size.
1) Will Olympus and Panasonic ever go full frame?
First short answer, it is not the right time for them to go full frame! Why? Over 90% of the market is driven by consumer oriented models. They don’t need full frame because it is simply to expensive for the great mass of people! Secondly, in time of crisis, development resources are small and you have to focus on existent technology trying to make them better. Thirdly, the difference in quality terms between 4/3 sensor and full frame is small. If you do pixel piping and huge big prints you will see a difference but that’s all. Real improvement can be made with new concept of camera size (like the Olympus m4/3 mockup), better LCD’s (Oled screens avaiable for 2010?), and maybe video recording capabilities.
2) Why is full frame important?
It is important for companies which have a big pro-market. But to get inside the market is quite difficult and not worth it for companies like Olympus, Panasonic, Pentax (with the exception of medium format), Fuji, etc
3) Will Olympus and Panasonic ever go full frame?
They know a micro four thirds concept applied on a full frame sensor would make a lot of publicity in the techworld. Everybody would talk about it! I believe that after the financial crisis, when things will be clearer, they will try to go this way if they have enough resources.
one more thing…
Sensor development goes not only in the direction of size, but of basic sensor concept. Panasonic is working on new HDR sensors which can capture huge a dynamicrange (not so far away from the concept developed by Fuji).
Are you satisfied?